Coronavirus: New modelling suggests 1,500 deaths in North to COVID-19

HEALTH Minister Robin Swann says the most recent modelling advice indicates that under the reasonable worst case scenario, the North of Ireland would record in the region of 1,500 deaths in the first 20 weeks of the epidemic.

He said it was a “significant revision” of the department’s previous modelling, and includes hospital deaths and deaths in the community.

However, the former UUP leader stressed it was not a prediction or a forecast, merely a “clear indication” that social distancing is working.

“Let me once again warn against complacency, because complacency in the strongest terms will kill,” he said.

Mr Swann added that “there are many people gravely ill in our hospitals with Covid-19”.

Experts had previously warned that there could be 3,000 deaths in NI in a first wave of the pandemic.

Mr Swann said there were 40 Covid patients in ICU earlier today and that yesterday there were a further 88 Covid-related admissions to hospital.

He said older people had to be especially careful “because every one of them is a valued and cherished member of this society”.

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